We investigate the intergenerational effect of parental health shocks on the fertility choices of adult children in China. By using a comprehensive longitudinal dataset of Chinese households, severe and unexpected health shocks to parents have been identified. To address sample imbalance issues...

Sovereigns issue debt on both domestic and foreign markets and the two debts are uncorrelated in the data. Sovereigns default mostly selectively. We propose a theory to rationalize these observations. A government chooses the optimal combination of two debts to smooth consumption, which is...

In this paper we model monthly UK inflation and find that there is some small but significant autocorrelation, particularly at 12 months. We find that this autocorrelation in monthly inflation leads to significant persistence in the headline annual inflation figure. A one-off shock to monthly...

We present a theory of determinants of sovereign debt stability on foreign and domestic markets. Besides the two traditional factors - debt size and output contractions, we highlight the role of the third factor: distortionary tax, which hinders the government's ability to freely raise revenues....

This paper explores the link between default risk and fiscal procyclicality. We show that countries with higher sovereign risk have a more procyclical fiscal expenditure policy, which is driven mostly by transfers. We build a small open economy model with income inequality, social transfers, and...

We conduct an empirical investigation to examine how income shocks and aggregate conditions influence income expectations, expectation uncertainty and expectation errors. We use data from a large longitudinal Dutch survey collecting detailed information on household income expectations. Our...

This study explores the impact of relationship banking on the financial constraints and loan conditions of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in China. Our research contributes to the literature in several ways. First, we examine both the financial costs and loan benefits associated with...

In this short paper we review the intellectual history of indirect inference as a methodology in its progress from an informal method for evaluating early models of representative agents to formally testing DSGE models of the economy; and we have considered the issues that can arise in carrying...

We study resource misallocation by explicitly modelling R&D input and knowledge spillovers. The effects of R&D and spillovers on firm-level productivity are extensively studied in applied work, but not in the context of resource misallocation. We establish that, in the presence of spillovers,...