economics, decisions are often based on forecasts of up{ or downward movements of the variable of interest. We point out that …

://dvn.iq.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/jorgenson/faces/study/StudyPage.xhtml? studyId=18798&rvn=5 and http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/jorgenson/files/ handbook … business cy- cle. Most important in the current application, K0 is not observed, and is in fact measured with signi cant error …’ calculations. Explaining TFP Growth in Europe: Some Exploratory Results 17 by the World Bank (Doing Business around the World7 …

. Baillie, R. and Kapetanios, G. (2007b). Testing for neglected nonlinearity in long-memory models, Journal of Business and …, Economics Letters 102(2): 83{86. Durr e, A. (2007). The liquidity premium in the money market: A compar- ison of the german mark …). Structural breaks and fractional integration in the US output and unemployment rate, Economics Letters 77(1): 79{84. Hassler, U …

, Humboldt University Berlin, School of Business and Economics, Spandauer Stra e 1, 10099 Berlin, Germany. Phone: +49 30 2093 … Economics and a seminar at Humboldt University Berlin for very helpful comments and suggestions. The project was supported by …

, NewKeynesianopeneconomymodel, trade costs, simulated method of moments (SMM) ∗Address: Institute of Economic Policy I, School of Business and … Economics, Humboldt- Universität zu Berlin, Spandauer Str. 1, 10178 Berlin, Germany, ried@wiwi.hu-berlin.de. Thanks go to Martin …

. JEL codes: J63, J64, J21, E24 Keywords: worker ows, accessions, separations, business cycle, job-to-job, employer … agents on both sides of the labour market over the business cycle. However, as Moscarini and Postel-Vinay (2008) point out …, this process is up to now little understood. They argue that, on the US labour market, speciflc phases of the business …