This paper re-evaluates the US external deficit which has considerably widened over the 1990s. US safe asset provision to the rest of the world is the dominant explanation for the persistent nature of the US external deficit. We suggest that apart from the safe asset hypothesis, there is an...

Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general...

This Policy Brief proposes the establishment of an agreement on conformity assessment between the EU and the US that covers machinery and electrical equipment. The initiative aims to increase the number of European and US conformity assessment bodies authorized to test and certify EU and US...

I study the labor market risks associated with being self-employed. I document that the self-employed are subject to larger earnings fluctuations than employees and that they frequently transition into unemployment. Given the self-employed are not eligible to unemployment insurance, I analyze...

Between September 2021 and April 2022, anhydrous ammonia prices in the United States more than doubled, topping out at a record-high $1,300/ton. At the time, Senator John Boozman, Ranking Member of the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, asked the Agricultural & Food Policy...

Prices for, and the affordability of childcare has received increased attention since the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, concerns have been raised about potential differences in childcare costs and access between rural and urban communities. To address these issues, we combine...

A second presidential term for Donald Trump would undoubtedly have huge impacts on topics in all areas of international relations - topics that are intrinsically relevant to all actors due to the status of the United States as a world power. Trump's political agenda differs considerably from...

It is common to transform data to stationarity, such as by differencing and demeaning, before estimating factor models in macroeconomics. Imposing these transformations, however, limit opportunities to learn about trending behaviour. Trends and deterministic processes can play a central role in...

A slanted-L curve is well-suited to represent the non-linearity of the celebrated Phillips curve. We show this using cross-country data of major industrialized economies since 2009, including the inflationary surge of the 2020s. At high unemployment rates, an increase in demand reduces...